Identification of Stakeholder Priorities for Risk Prediction of Hospital Readmission and Development of a Prediction Framework

Summary

Readmission after hospital discharge is a common and serious health problem in Canada, a country with some of the lowest numbers of hospital beds per capita compared to other countries with universal health care. In 2020-2021, approximately 9.4% of discharged Canadian adults were readmitted within 30 days, causing significant strain on the medical system and costing the Canadian government an estimated $2.3 billion yearly. Current risk-prediction tools for readmission perform poorly and have design limitations that exclude marginalized groups. These issues stem from a poorly developed prediction framework. An updated tool, built upon a prediction framework co-developed with stakeholders that works to identify people at risk of poor outcomes after hospital discharge, can help guide future strategies for risk-guided discharge decision-making.

Our project will address the following research question: How can we best predict the risk of hospital readmissions for hospitalized adults? In Objective 1, we will develop a prediction framework for a new risk-prediction tool by engaging with key stakeholders, including diverse patients/caregivers, end-users, and health system leaders. We will then use the elements of the co-developed prediction framework to build a new risk-prediction tool. Finally, we will test the newly developed tool against the currently used model(s) and assess the extent of the tool's prediction accuracy in different geographical and contextual settings.

We are currently seeking participants for Objective 1 to participate in group discussions and 1-on-1 interviews regarding their experience and knowledge of hospital readmissions in Alberta.