Date: Thursday, May 19, 1994
Speaker: Keith Willoughby, University of Calgary
Title: BUBLS: The Bus Barn Location System (BC Transit)
Abstract: A mixed integer programming model, developed in conjunction with the Vancouver Regional Transit System, is used to optimally locate bus barns (garages) and allocate buses to those facilities. Potential annual savings of over $1.5 million in vehicle deadhead costs occur under the optimal configuration. The model is also used to analyze the resulting changes in garage location should Rapid Transit be expanded to certain suburbs.
Biography: Keith Willoughby was born and raised in Melfort, Saskatchewan and convocated from the University of Saskatchewan in 1990 with a B.Comm. He earned his M.Sc. degree in Management Science from U.B.C., with his thesis focusing on developing a mixed integer programming model to solve transit centre location-bus allocation problems for the Vancouver Regional Transit System. After completing some additional research for this organization after completion of his thesis, he entered the Ph.D. program in Operations Management at the University of Calgary.
Date: Thursday, September 22, 1994
Speaker: Kenneth J. Klassen
Title: Scheduling Outpatient Appointments Dynamically
Abstract: A simulation model is used to evaluate various scheduling rules in a dynamic medical outpatient environment with the purpose of minimizing the waiting time of the clients as well as the idle time of the service provider. Using various performance measures, it is possible to identify heuristics which improve considerably on those rules previously accepted as "best".
Biography: Ken was born and raised in St. Catharines, Ontario, and graduated from Brock University in 1987 with a B.Admin. He then worked for a number of years in the banking industry, after which he earned his M.B.A. at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario. He is currently enrolled in the Ph.D. program in Operations Management at the University of Calgary and has spent the summer working on the dynamic scheduling problem.
Date: Thursday, October 20, 1994
Speaker: Fred Krause (Imperial Oil) and Tom Rohleder (U of C)
Title: Modelling the Consequences of Actions: A Human Resources Simulation Model
Abstract: We will discuss applications of computer simulation and stochastic modelling to assist decision makers in forecasting and planning human resource flows at Imperial Oil, Ltd. The presentation will emphasize the practical aspects of developing and implementing a sophisticated management science technique for a client organization. Coverage will include the causes necessitating the model development, the process of getting the model designed and implemented, and the benefits of the model to the users.
Biography: Fred Krause is a Senior Associate responsible for non-technical training in Western Canada for Imperial Oil Ltd. Previous to his current position, Fred was on the division management team responsible for strategically aligning human resource services (compensation, recruiting, succession planning, etc. ) with Imperial Oil's business plan. Fred also has experience in Quality Management, planned organization change, team building, process consultation, and work redesign in manufacturing and office environments. Fred has a Master of Organizational Behavior from the Graduate School of Management at Brigham Young University and a Bachelor of Business Education from the University of British Columbia.
Thomas R. Rohleder is an Associate Professor of Operations Management in the Faculty of Management at the University of Calgary. Tom has a Ph.D. in Business Administration from the University of Minnesota. Before obtaining his Ph.D. he spent five years working in quantitative analysis and capital financing with ITT Corp. and Northwestern National Life in the U.S. His current research interests are in business process improvement, computer simulation, and dynamic scheduling problems.
Date: Thursday, January 19, 1995
Speaker: John Heffer (Husky Oil)
Title: A Linear Programming Model for Systems Staff Assignment
Abstract: Mr. Heffer will discuss the model he developed and uses to gain insight and assist in the assignment of some 25 systems personnel who support and develop computer systems in Husky's Information Technology Management department. The discussion will develop the themes of skill sets, coaching, training, 'fairness', and the nature of systems work and the software consulting market.
Biography: John Heffer is presently an Account Manager, Application Support and Development in the ITM department at Husky Oil. Since joining Husky in 1968 as Operations Research Analyst, he has held a variety of responsibilities in the departments of Planning and Economics, Refining and Marketing, and computing. Although OR has not played a major role in his recent career, the topic remains an abiding interest. John holds a B.A. (Hons.) from the University of Manitoba, an M.B.A. from the University of Western Ontario, a Diploma in Operations Research from the University of Toronto, and a Master of Applied Science (Industrial Engineering), also from the U. of T.
Date: Thursday, February 16, 1995
Speaker: Leon Fedenczuk - Gambit Consulting Ltd.
Title: Geostatistics and Visualization
Abstract: In this talk, a method is presented for the interpretation of statistical results from discriminant analysis. Specific attention has been given to the application of Visualization to the presentation of results from statistical analysis. Techniques are presented to allow a geologist in oil and gas exploration to make a visual analysis of the statistical results.
In particular, it is explained how to convert multidimensional geological and engineering data into a single parameter, which is later presented in 2D and 3D space. A discriminant criterion is developed and then used to classify each of the multivariate observations into one of two groups: producers and nonproducers. The posterior probability of membership in each group for the test data is presented as the production probability. Furthermore, this probability governs the colour and density during the rendering process.
In addition, an application of boolean algebra is presented as a tool to select areas of interest from two or more sets of probabilities.
Biography: Leon received his B.Sc. in Electrical Engineering, B.Sc. in Computer Science, and M.Sc. in Physics. Currently he is a PhD candidate at the University of Calgary in the Department of Computer Science. Before starting his consulting career, he was involved in research in plasma chemistry, semiconductors, and computer applications in the petroleum industry. He is interested in scientific visualization of multidimensional data analysis through dimension reduction techniques. He is developing adaptive stochastic modelling methods for scientific visualization with emphasis on visualizing porous media (particularly rocks). He enjoys downhill skiing, and during the warmer months, sailing and windsurfing are on the top of his list.
Date: Thursday, April 13, 1995
Speaker: Tom Davis, Hewlett-Packard
Title: Supply Chain Management at Hewlett-Packard
Abstract: Supply chain management--managing the interactions of production and inventory decisions from your supplier's supplier all the way through to your customer's customer--has been a business issue since the dawn of trade on the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates. Most enterprises, though, only started paying close attention to the problem in the last few years. The rest will start soon -- success in the market place will require it! Slimming margins and heightened expectations on the part of customers will force everyone to look beyond their own four walls.
At HP we humbly believe we're ahead of the pack when it comes to managing the whole supply chain -- we started earnest work in the area in 1989. I will describe some of the basic tenets of supply chain management as we practice it at HP. This will include a taste of the technical work we've done to solve complex supply chain problems. I will focus, though, on a few interesting case studies that capture some of our greatest "discoveries" in the area.
Biography: Tom Davis is a Process Technology Manager with HP's Strategic Planning and Modeling group. His team works with HP product divisions and business groups to foster rational, data-driven decision making. They apply advanced operations management concepts in areas including:
* Supply chain management
* Multi-plant charter analysis
* Capacity planning
* Forecasting and planning
* Performance metrics
* Group technology
Tom earned a BS and MS in Mechanical Engineering from MIT and an MS in Engineering Management from Stanford.
Date: Thursday, September 21, 1995
Speaker: Robert (Rob) Lavoie, P. Eng., NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd.
Title: A Reserves-Based Engineering and Micro-Economics-Oriented Supply and Demand Forecasting System
Abstract: NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL) recognized the need for an integrated information system which would improve its ability to forecast the supply and demand of natural gas for transportation through its pipeline system. As a result, a supply and demand forecasting system has been developed which makes use of available reserves information, deliverability analysis using engineering principles, discounted cash flow economics analysis at a pool level, and natural gas demand information available through industry analysis and North American energy modeling results.
Biography: Robert Lavoie is currently an employee of NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. He is one of a team of two engineers who support NOVA's supply and demand forecasting models. He began his career as a resservoir engineer with Shell Canada in 1981. While with Shell he designed the reservoir engineering aspects of a feasibility pilot for enhanced oil recovery using CO2 injection in the Midale reservoir of S.E. Saskatchewan. He was also the senior reservoir engineer for super sour (90% H2S) gas recovery pilot in Shell's Bearberry reservoir. Since 1992 he has been working on the SAFIRE software application for NOVA which will be the subject of his talk.
Date: Thursday, October 19, 1995
Speaker: Aldo Dagnino, Alberta Research Council
Title: Integration of Knowledge-based and Operations Research Techniques in Computer Integrated Manufacturing
Abstract: One major aspect of computer integrated manufacturing systems is the integration of the different kinds of information generated at every stage of the manufacturing cycle. Knowledge-based techniques employ knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems that require a high degree of expertise and cannot be mathematically structured. Operations Research on the other hand, solves problems for which precise mathematical structures and algorithmic solutions can be obtained. It is the objective of this talk to demonstrate that Knowledge-based systems and Operations Research methodologies can combine forces to develop more effective decision making tools. Computer integrated manufacturing provides a fertile ground for the integration of systems that employ Knowledge-based techniques and Operations Research approaches. This presentation gives an overview of both disciplines, common features and differences, and several ideas about integration issues. The presentation concludes with an example of an optimization software system for cutting linear materials.
Biography: Aldo Dagnino obtained his Ph.D. in Systems Design Engineering, and is the manager of the Integrated Manufacturing group at the Alberta Research Council. The mission of the group is to improve the global competitive position of Western Canadian manufacturing companies by promoting the growth and re-engineering of their manufacturing related activities using advanced information technmologies. Aldo Dagnino's interests include: knowledge-intensive engineering applied to manufacturing, object-oriented manufacturing systems, process re-engineering, and in general, the implementation of advanced information technologies to manufacturing environments.
Date: Thursday, November 16, 1995
Speaker: Harish Rao
Title: Redesign of Manufacturing Systems
Abstract:
Biography:
Date: Thursday, March 21, 1996
Speaker: Dr. Tom Grossman, University of Calgary
Title: The Democratization of Operational Research. Advantages, Disadvantages and Impacts of Using Spreadsheet Software to do Operational Research.
Abstract: With recent innovations in spreadsheet software it is now possible to do "real" OR in Excel or Lotus 1-2-3. Techniques such as linear programming, non-linear programming, decision analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation can now be successfully implemented in spreadsheets. The author anticipates two impacts: First, "end-user modeling" by technically unsophisticated managers and analysts is now viable. Second, spreadsheets can (and should) play an important role in OR practice and research. There are many advantages to using spreadsheets, such as easy prototyping, simplified client communication, easier buy-in, reduced level of abstraction, and automatic creation of what-if tools. The disadvantages include limits on size and complexity, difficulty of communicating model formulations, and unresolved issues of model documentation, maintenance and user interface.
The use of spreadsheets is inspiring new thinking about "modelling" (as opposed to "models"), and is calling into question a few traditional sacred cows. Numerous "live" examples will be demonstrated using an IBM ThinkPad.
Biography: Tom Grossman joined the Operations Management area of the Faculty of Management at the University of Calgary in July 1994. He worked for Decision Focus, Incorporated (a management science-based consulting firm located in northern California) from 1985-1992, where he designed and implemented yield management systems for United Airlines and Scandinavian Airline Systems, and investigated technology transfer in the electric utility industry. He has also consulted to Apple Computer on supply chain management issues. He received a Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from Stanford University in January 1994. His education includes a M.S. in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford, and a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana.
Tom is currently leading the team that is converting the Faculty of Management's undergraduate core course in management science to use Excel as the sole software tool. He is also Vice-President (Programs) of the INFORMS Forum on Education.
Date: Thursday, April 18, 1996
Speaker: Bill Chmilar, NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd.
Title: Sustainable Capacity: a Methodology for Pipeline Reliability Evaluation and Design
Abstract: A reliability evaluation methodology, referred to as Sustainable Capacity, has been developed to quantify reliability expectations and provide a basis for the explicit consideration of reliability in pipeline design. The methodology, which has been adapted from one widely used in the electric power industry, is based on the representation of the load and capacity processes, which define reliability, with Markov models. These models generate time-series of simultaneous load and capacity profiles which are evaluated to determine reliability expectations. A cost-benefit methodology which recognizes the variation in the value attributed to pipeline reliability by individual customers is then used to assess the economic efficiency of any proposed facility addition. Further to its application as a design tool, the Sustainable Capacity methodology can also provide support in other areas such as operations and maintenance planning.
Biography: Bill Chmilar graduated from the University of Waterloo in 1976 with a Bachelor of Applied Science in Systems Design Engineering. Since graduation, Bill has been employed within the oil and gas industry in Canada in various areas including reservoir engineering, arctic and offshore engineering, and gas processing as well as facility and pipeline design.
Bill is currently employed by NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL) as a Senior Engineer in the Design and Operations Support group within the System Planning Department. His responsibilities include the development of new and modified methodologies for the planning and design of the NGTL pipeline system.
Date: Thursday, May 16, 1996
Speaker: Jack Gordon and Ajay Kumar
Sigma Risk Management Inc.
Title: Operations research Methods in the Management of Insurable Risk
Abstract: The goal of insurable risk management is to minimize the adverse effects of risk by identifying, minimizing, controlling and financing the risk. The risk management process itself can be viewed as a linear program. Other techniques - decision analysis, fault trees, numerical simulation, Delphi techniques - have some application in risk management.
Biography: Jack Gordon holds Bachelor's and Master's Degrees in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Alberta and an MBA in Finance from the University of California at Berkeley. He is a Professional Engineer, a Certified Management Consultant, a Fellow of the Institute of Canada and a member of the Society of Risk Management Consultants. He also holds the CRM (Canadian Risk Management) professional designation.
Ajay Kumar holds a Master's Degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Calgary and an MBA in Finance from Queen's University. He is a member of the Association of Professional Engineers of Alberta and is a CRM candidate.
Both are consultants at Sigma Risk Management Inc., an independent management consulting and engineering firm that provides a variety of technical services in the corporate risk management and insurance area. Sigma is ISO 9000 certified.
Date: Thursday, 19 September 1996
Speaker: David Ellis, D. W. ELLIS & ASSOCIATES LTD.
Title: How to Lie, Cheat and Deceive Using Data
Abstract: This light-hearted presentation will describe the many ways that data and statistics are used to distort the truth. Although it is sometimes done unknowingly, this knowledge will enable you to recognize these problems and begin a "Culture of Truth" in your organization.
Biography: David Ellis holds an M.B.A. from York University and a Ph.D. from the University of Toronto in management science. Dr. Ellis, president of D. W. Ellis and Associates Ltd., has experience in the oil, gas and chemical industries as well as in manufacturing, mining and service organizations where he has specialized in simulation models. He has developed a modelling concept that can be applied to almost any business situation, allowing models to be developed faster and validated more easily at lower cost. His organization provides a comprehensive consulting service in quality management. Dr. Ellis belongs to CORS, ORSA, CIMM and the American Society for Quality Control.
Date: Thursday, October 17, 1996
Speaker: Alan McKee, Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Limited
Title: Systems Thinking as an Integral Component of a Strategic Planning Exercise
Abstract: Amoco set out to improve its understanding of certain behaviours in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin gas business. A conceptual model was developed to identify observed cause and effect relationships, and a system dynamics simulation model was created to develop and explore robust scenarios consistent with the conceptual model. Results and insights will be discussed.
Biography: Alan McKee joined Dome Petroleum and spent his early years in both Western Canada and the Canadian Beaufort Sea. In 1988 he became an employee of Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd. when it bought out Dome Petroleum. In 1991 he joined the Central Production Business Unit, where he worked in strategic and business planning, benchmarking and economic evaluation. In 1995 he joined the Amoco Management Learning Center in Downer's Grove IL as a part-time adjunct faculty member. In 1996 he became the Business Planner for Amoco Canada's Gas Business Unit.
Date: Thursday, 21 November 1996
Speaker: Maurice Elliott
Decision Insight Systems Inc.
Title: Some Different Uses for Optimization Data
Abstract: This presentation will use simple examples to illustrate how GAMS facilitates the encoding pf problems for solution using optimization techniques. Linear programming is used to "optimize" his children's university class schedules, in one case merely ensuring no clashes and in the other finding a set of courses that meets requirements for a degree while maximizing interest and relevance to the student.
Biography: Maurice Elliott was born in England, where he graduated with honours in mathematics and received a master's degree in operational research. He worked for Massey Ferguson in England and in Canada, where he worked in production control and financial planning. He joined Dome Petroleum in 1980, developing a financial planning system and a decision support system that continued after the Amoco takeover until 1993. Since 1993, Mr. Elliott has operated Decision Insight Systems, developing PC software for personal financial planning with author Henry Zimmer. In 1995 Maurice Elliott was the recipient of the 1995 CORS practice prize
Date: Thurday, February 20, 1997
Speaker: Vickitt Lau, RADSS Technologies
Title: Applying Genetic Algorithms to Railcar Allocation
Abstract: This presentation will describe the application of genetic algorithms to the logistical problem of allocating railcar orders to individual Alberta Wheat Pool elevators on a weekly basis. The Pool handles about 70 000 railcar orders per year, allocating to 57 train runs serving 200 elevators. The amount of data is huge; the number of feasible solutions is almost infinite.
Biography: Vickitt Lau holds a Master's degree in computing science from the University of Alberta. Before joining RADSS Technologies two years ago, Mr. Lau spent seven years at the Alberta Research Council, where he completed a fleet planning system for Greyhound Lines of Canada, a railcar allocation system, a shift scheduling system and a knowledge-based power management system for the Canadian Space Agency. At RADSS Technologies, he is involved in developing logistics software products, including a truck scheduling system.
Date: Thursday, March 27, 1997
Speaker: Cornelis van de Panne, Professor Emeritus,
University of Calgary
Title: A Large Scale Study of Bank Branch Efficiency
Abstract: This presentation will describe an application of data envelopment analysis, which is used to diagnose and monitor the efficiency of a number of comparable units of a public or private organization. It compares units' inputs and outputs, assigning efficiency scores between 0 and 1. Schools, hospitals, power generation stations and banks are some of the unit types which have been evaluated using DEA. Results of a DEA model applied to 1200 branches of a major Canadian bank will be described. DEA efficiency scores tend to be high for a small number of units, but much lower if many units are compared; efficiency scores from a small number of units are biased.
Biography: Cornelis van de Panne has taught Operations Research for many years in the University of Calgary's Department of Economics. His research has concentrated on mathematical programming, particularly decomposition methods. In recent years he has worked on DEA applications, which are based on linear programming and on computer-based market simulation. He is a strong supporter and user of spreadsheets in teaching economics, linear programming, econometrics and financial economics.
Cor van de Panne was Program Chairman of the 1995 CORS annual conference in Calgary. He is the author of two books and many articles in major operations research journals. Last year he retired from the University and became Professor Emeritus of Economics.
Date: Thursday, 24 April 1997
Speaker: Thorn Walden
Senior Economist, Alberta Energy and Utilities Board
Title: Crude Oil Prorationing as an Optimization Problem
Abstract: This presentation will take various sets of rules used in prorating crude oil production among producing entities to market demand, and formulate them as linear or quadratic programming problems.
Biography: I was born and raised in British Columbia, where I obtained a B.Sc. and an M.B.A. from U.B.C., and later took graduate OR courses at U.C.L.A., Case Western Reserve and McGill. I am a Senior Economist in the Economics and Policy Development Group of the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, where my chief responsibility is the care and feeding of a macroeconomic model of Alberta. I also assess the greenhouse gas emissions associated with production and consumption of energy, and handle economic aspects of applications to build petrochemical plants, electric power plants and transmission lines; and to export natural gas. Earlier, I worked in Alberta, Quebec and East Africa as an economist and management consultant. Other projects I have worked on with an operational research flavour include fertilizer storage and distribution, and inventory control for a pipe mill.
Date: Thursday, May 22,1997
Speaker: Tom Morrison, Morrison Scientific
Title: Optimized Inspection Times for Systems Under Stochastic Decay
Abstract: If the growth of corrosion on a pipeline can be determined, when should the pipeline next be inspected? As data processing methods have improved over the past several years, it has now become possible to determine a best estimate of the growth of every corrosion feature on a pipeline. From this information a prediction of risk as a function of time can be developed, and the resulting estimate can be used to determine when the pipeline should next be inspected.
Biography: Tom Morrison obtained an undergraduate degree in physics from the University of Alberta and a Master's degree in statistics and operations research from the University of Calgary. The topic for this presentation is also the topic of his master's thesis. He began working on corrosion-related problems for NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. in 1989, having previously worked in the frontier oil patch. The decision rules he developed for pipeline inspection have been in use for four years. Morrison Scientific, owned by Tom and by Guy Desjardins, funds a scholarship in statistics each year at the University of Calgary.
Date: Friday, September 19, 1997
Speaker: Bill Good, Alberta Department of Energy
Title: Possible Effects of Gas Caps on Bitumen Recovery by Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage: A Numerical Simulation Study
Abstract: Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), a process with very significant potential for recovery from Alberta's oil sands, may be negatively affected by gas cap production. The process and highlights of a joint numerical simulation study of possible gas cap effects conducted by the Alberta Department of Energy, Research and Technology Branch, and the Energy and Utilities Board will be discussed.
Biography: W. K. Good received a B.Sc. degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Alberta in 1963. He worked for Gulf Canada Resources Limited for 20 years in production operations, reservoir engineering, in-situ pilot project management, and heavy oil development. He joined the Alberta Oil Sands Technology and Research Authority (AOSTRA), now known as the Research and Technology Branch of the Alberta Department of Energy, in 1982 as a technical representative, and since 1988 has been Manager, Engineering and Technology Development. In this position, he has been associated with the development of the SAGD process.
Mr. Good is a registered professional engineer in Alberta, and is a member of the Canadian Heavy Oil Association, Petroleum Society of CIM, and SPE. He is currently Continuing Education Director of the Petroleum Society of CIM, and is a member of the Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology (JCPT) editorial review board.
Date: Thursday, October 16, 1997
Speaker: Jim Enarson, Intelligent Technologies Inc.
Title: Genetic Algorithms for Pipeline Scheduling
Abstract: The scheduling of batches through liquid pipeline systems has been a major part of pipeline operations for many years. In many pipelines, the scheduling process continues to be a manual operation. Currently, efforts are under way to use artificial intelligence to find solutions which provide best-fit results to the scheduling problem. The author is part of a group working with genetic algorithms to help in this search for solutions.
Biography: Mr. Jim Enarson studied electrical engineering at the University of Alberta, receiving a MSc degree in 1969. He taught in the electronic technology department at the Northern Alberta Institute of Technology for five years before moving to Calgary to join Imperial Oil Limited in their Central Production Control Department. After leaving Imperial Oil, he spent 15 years in the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) field, developing and servicing software systems. Working with his partner, Mr. Alan Genereux, in Intelligent Technologies Inc. in a joint venture with the Alberta Research Council, Mr. Enarson has been involved in the development of the technology to its new owners
Date: Friday, November 21, 1997
Speaker: Dr. Thomas R. Rohleder, University of Calgary
Title: An Introduction to Analyzing and Managing Call Centres
Abstract: This session is intended as an introduction to the problems and opportunities for OR professionals in working with the increasingly ubiquitous call centre (e.g., technical support, catalog sales orders, telemarketing services). Some estimates suggest call centres make up nearly 8% of total employment, and it is a rare day that each of us does not interact with some sort of call centre. Unfortunately, this interaction is as likely to be a negative experience as a positive one. I will explore the reasons that call centres are so difficult to operate and suggest ways OR professionals can use their expertise to help improve these operations. Applicable techniques in forecasting, simulation, statistics, and managerial economics will be briefly discussed.
Biography: Dr. Rohleder joined the University of Calgary in the Finance and Operations Management Area in 1991. He has a Ph.D. in Business Administration and a B.S.B in Finance from the University of Minnesota. Before obtaining his doctorate, Tom worked for a total of six years at ITT Corp. and Northwestern National Life Insurance Co. in the areas of quantitative analysis and asset financing. Since coming to Calgary, Dr. Rohleder has participated in several consulting projects in such areas as gas allocation modelling, human resources simulation, business process simulation, and services forecasting. He also started a student/faculty group interested in the manufacturing engineering and management interface and developed short courses in time-based competition and business process improvement. Dr. Rohleder's research interests include continuous process improvement, project risk evaluation, service operations management, and group technology. He has published over a dozen articles in leading operations management journals, and is a member of the Canadian Operational Research Society, the Decision Sciences Institute, and the Production and Operations Management Society.
Date: Friday, January 15, 1998
Speaker: Thorn Walden, Alberta Energy and Utilities Board
Title: Project Evaluation in Utility Demand-Side Management: A Linear Fractional Programming Approach
Abstract: The traditional No-Losers Test employed by utilities - that programs to reduce electricity or natural gas consumption should not adversely affect rates to non-participating customers - has been attacked as too severe a test. An alternative test had been proposed: direct comparison of the cost of a conservation measure borne by the utility with avoided cost of supply. In the ensuing debate, the No-Losers Test has been shown to be correct. There remains the methodological problem of ensuring that rates to non-participating customers are no higher than they would otherwise be. A utiltiy faced with a variety of opportunities to foster end-use efficiency, contemplating adopting some but not all of them, has no obvious way of identifying what would happen "otherwise" in analyzing each proposal. An integer variant of linear fractional programming reminiscent of the classical capital budgeting problem in integer-programming form can sort a shopping list of end-use efficiency proposals into those that pass and those that fail the No-Losers Test. This formulation of the No-Losers Test can readily accommodate interdependencies among the proposals in the shopping list.
Biography: Thorn Walden was born and raised in British Columbia, where he obtained a B.Sc. and M.B.A. from U.B.C. and later took graduate OR courses at U.C.L.A., Case Western Reserve and McGill. He is a Senior Economist in the Economics and Policy Development Group of the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, where he is revamping a series of econometric models used in forecasting Alberta's own energy demand. He also assesses the greenhouse gas emissions associated with production and consumption of energy and handles economic aspects of applications to build pipelines or mine coal. Previously, Thorn had a similar role in applications to build petrochemical plants, electric power plants and transmission lines; and to export natural gas. Earlier, he worked in Alberta, Quebec and East Africa as an economist and management consultant. Other projects he has worked on with an OR flavour include oil prorationing, fertilizer storage and distribution, and inventory control for a pipe mill.
Date: Friday, February 20, 1998
Speaker: Chan Wirasinghe, Faculty of Engineering, University of Calgary
Title: OR Applications in Airport Planning
Abstract: The planning of airports has been more an art than a science. Much of the early work in taking a scientific approach to the planning of airports was done by Professor Robert Horonjeff of the University of California at Berkeley in the 1960s and 1970s. If various components of the airport are taken separately, one can formulate mathematical models of the system that can then be optimized using OR techniques. Some of the research done at the University of Calgary includes the application of deterministic queueing theory to the planning of departure lounges and the application of mathematical modeling and simulation to the determination of airport configurations. Probabilistic and deterministic models of gate assignment have also been developed. This lunch time talk will be a brief overview of some of the above work. It will be in conversational format, and will not be too technical or mathematical.
Biography: Dr. Chan Wirasinghe received his Ph.D. in Civil Engineering (Transportation) from the University of Califormia at Berkeley. He assumed duties as an assistant professor at the University of Calgary in 1976. His research interests include traffic engineering, public transportation, and airports. He has a special interest in the mathematical modeling and optimization of transportation systems, including airport systems. He curently serves as Dean of the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Calgary.
Date: Thursday, March 19, 1998
Speaker: John Gradek, CP Rail
Bill VanMarter, CP Rail
Title: Railway Boxcar Allocation
Abstract: We introduce Canadian Pacific Railway, an increased local presence since its 1996 reorganization and location of main offices to Calgary. Twenty-five percent of CPR's business is grain between the Western Prairies and the ports at Vancouver and Thunder Bay. We present a recent OR initiative to improve grain car scheduling for this vital business.
Biography: John Gradek is the Director of Yard Network Optimization and Locomotive Fleet Management for the Canadian Pacific Railway headquarters in Calgary. He joined the railway in 1994 as a business process redesign specialist and participated in the restructuring of the railway, culminating with its consolidation into its present Calgary operation in 1996. John was instrumental in the functional design of several new elements of the railway's organization, notably its Service Design and Planning activities.
Prior to joining the railway, John was a principal in a start-up aviation consulting operation in Montreal - Global Airline Planning Systems. He was responsible for the design and delivery of several senior airline management seminars on managing in a deregulated economic and commercial environment, introducing participants to concepts such as revenue management, flight schedule optimization and evolving labor-management practices.
John spent 18 years in the employ of Air Canada, taking early retirement in 1993, after having held a number of senior management positions in both planning and operations. His most notable functions included Director of Revenue Management, Director of Flight Scheduling, and Toronto Pearson Airport Manager.
John has maintained a constant link to the academic community throughout his business career. As an associate professor at McGill in Montreal, he was course coordinator for the Business Policy program in the Continuing Education department. John is one of the founding academics in the International Aviation Management Training Institute, headquarters in Montreal, where both technical and academic programs are presented in association with the International Air Transport Association, to a world-wide aviation community
John has a B. Sc. from the Universite de Montreal, a B. Eng. From Carleton in Ottawa, and an M.B.A. from the University of Western Ontario in London. He is married and lives in Calgary Southwest.
Bill VanMarter was born and raised in Florida, where they play golf all year around. He received a BS in chemistry from Stetson University in 1974, and an MBA from the University of North Florida in Jacksonville in 1979. He is also a Certified Management Accountant (CMA).
Bill began as a cost analyst with (then) Seaboard Coast Line Railroad (now CSX) in Jacksonville in 1979. In the mid '80's, US railroads began the first round of downsizing after deregulation, and Bill took a buyout from Seaboard to take a Manager of Costing job with the Soo Line in Minneapolis. He spent nine years in this capacity, and then worked in Strategic Planning for two years, also in an analytical capacity.
As you may know, CP Rail owned part of, and then 100% of the Soo stock, and began to take an active interest in managing the Soo in the early '90's. When CP announced the reorganization plans in 1995, Bill said he would go to Calgary 'over his dead body'. Bill and his family are just finishing up their second year here, still trying to learn the language, and think it is a great place to live.
Bill is Senior Analyst in the Long Term Resource Planning department of CPR, responsible for capital plan justification. His professional expertise has evolved toward theoretical and applied capacity analysis and modeling of transportation networks.
He is active in the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), with several papers to his credit.
Bill's advice to you is 'Be careful what you wish for'. Back in Florida, he wondered what it would be like to live where it snows.
Date: Thursday, March 19, 1998
Speaker: Erhan Erkut, University of Alberta
Title: Optimization with Spreadsheets
Abstract: The spreadsheet has revolutionized the way we teach and practice management science. We will focus on optimizing using the spreadsheet. In the first part of the talk, we will discuss the capabilities and the limitations of the built-in optimization tools, and point out some pitfalls. In the second part, we will describe implementations of a few heuristic algorithms on the spreadsheet. While the spreadsheet provides a very crude programming environment, it has proven to be a particularly useful tool for the teaching and learning of certain algorithms. We will offer several live examples during the talk.
Biography: Dr. Erhan Erkut is Alexander Hamilton Professor of Management Science at the University of Alberta in Edmonton. He also holds adjunct positions in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Alberta, and in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Bogazici University in Istanbul. Erhan received a B.Sc from Bogazici University and a Ph.D from the University of Florida, both in Industrial Engineering.
In his professional career, Erhan has focused on popularizing Management Science courses in a Business Faculty, undertaking relevant research on facility location and transportation problems, and applying Operations Research to practical problems. He has authored numerous academic papers, mostly in the area of transportation (especially of hazardous materials).
Erhan is President of the Edmonton Section of CORS, and President of SOLA (INFORMS Section on Location Analysis). He is chair of the Education Committees of both CORS and INFORMS, a member of the CORS National Council, and associate or guest editor of three OR-related journals. He holds two research grants in the area of hazardous waste logistics.
Date: Thursday, March 19, 1998
Speaker: Alan McKee, Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd.
Title: Application of System Dynamics to Strategic Planning
Abstract: As the largest producer of natural gas in Canada, Amoco Canada has recognized the need to continually improve its understanding and modeling of behaviours observed in the natural gas business in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. As a result, recent strategic planning initiatives have focussed on applying a Systems Thinking approach to create computer simulations for the development of natural gas assets in Alberta. This approach consists of two major components: the development of a conceptual model to describe the cause and effect relationships observed in this business; and a system dynamics computer model designed to simulate the behaviours described in that conceptual model. The computer model then allowed for the development of robust scenarios and the evaluation of different policy decisions over time under these scenarios. The discussion will focus on the experiences and learning gained as a result of using this approach and toolset to define and simulate a complex, dynamic system.
As a note, the systems dynamic models were developed using a software application known as I-Think (developed by High Performance Systems).
Biography: Alan McKee joined Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd. in 1988 when the company acquired Dome Petroleum. He spent his early years in the drilling organization in both Western Canada and the Canadian Beaufort Sea. With Amoco Canada's reorganization in the fall of 1991, he became part of the Central Production Business Unit, in a role that evolved to include strategic and business planning, benchmarking, and economic evaluations. With Amoco Canada's realignment of Production Business Units in the summer of 1996, he became the Business Planner for the Canada Gas Business Unit.
In addition, during the 1995-96 program year, he served as a part-time adjunct faculty member at The Amoco Management Learning Center in Downers Grove, Illinois. Amoco Corporation is a member of the consortium that sponsors The Center for Organizational Learning, at the Sloan School of Management at MIT. The Center works to advance the state-of-the-art in building learning organizations.
Date: Thursday, March 19, 1998
Speaker: Dean S. C. Wirasinghe
Dawn Dott
University of Calgary
Title: Optimal Network Design for Natural Gas Pipelines
Abstract: Natural gas transportation requires a continuous pipeline network from well-head to burner tip. In fact, the gas pipeline system connecting the upstream and downstream facilities is really a series of networks nested within each other. By understanding pipeline network operations and design requirements, it is possible to dissect this network problem and seek out optimization algorithms. These techniques may then be applied, with slight modifications where necessary, to various levels of pipeline networks embedded in continental, and other large-scale pipeline networks.
Four network design problems receive attention: (1) central facility density, (2) spatially-optimal network layout, (3) central facility placement, and (4) impact of environment on pipeline design. The first of these problems is solved using a market area model. Here, an appropriate configuration factor for pipeline networks is determined and used to calculate optimal density. Second, concepts of the minimal spanning tree and Steiner trees are combined in an analytical algorithm for generating near-optimal pipeline networks. Third, a standard optimization process locates the network median for optimal facility placement. Last, monetary valuation of the environment is shown to have relevance to pipeline projects, and a revealed preference technique is proposed. Case studies of several Alberta pipeline networks illustrate the network concepts presented.
Biography: Dr. Chan Wirasinghe received his Ph.D. in Civil Engineering (Transportation) from the University of California at Berkeley. He assumed duties as an assistant professor at the University of Calgary in 1976. His research interests include traffic engineering, public transportation and airports. He has a special interest in the mathematical modeling and optimization of transportation systems including airport systems. He currently serves as Dean of the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Calgary.
Dawn Dott completed her Master of Science degree in Transportation Engineering at the University of Calgary, in the Department of Civil Engineering in December of 1997. Her research topic was the optimization of natural gas pipeline networks for the reduction of construction costs and environmental impact. She has an undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Manitoba. Dawn's work experience includes several roles with PanCanadian Petroleum Ltd., including natural gas transportation representative and reservoir engineer. Also, she has worked with Northern Telecom Inc. as a supply planning specialist. Currently, she is looking for work as a transportation engineering consultant.
Date: Friday, April 17, 1998
Speaker: Mike Ricketts, Developing Leaders
Title: Modeling Leadership
Abstract: Drawing on his eclectic background of continuous leadership study and practical experience, Mike will speak about his universal model for developing leaders.
Biography: Mike Ricketts has over thirty-five years of leadership study and experience. As an aerospace engineer in the Canadian Forces, Mike ran various maintenance groups operating aircraft as diverse as the CF-104 "Widow-maker" to the single-engined Otter. During this period, he encountered system dynamics while completing an MBA in quantitative analysis and used it to model his squadron. After secondment as a defence scientist in the Operational Research Analysis Establishment of the Defence Research Board, Mike became a global pioneer in the automation of aviation maintenance.
Joining Dome Petroleum in 1980, Mike continued to lead in the innovative use of Information Technology first as a business systems analyst and later as a corporate planner. Management jobs in Purchasing and Surface Rights proved the portability of flight-line leadership to the oil and gas industry.
Mike is a principal in COMPETITIVE EDGE CONCEPTS LTD., training managers and office professionals; and, in DEVELOPING LEADERS, providing organizations with one-on-one leadership coaching. He is a former president of CORS and founder of the Calgary section.
Date: Thursday, September 17, 1998
Speaker: Maurice Elliott, Decision Insight
Title: Building System Dynamics Models using I-Think Software
Abstract: This talk will describe the characteristics of the I-Think software tool for building and executing system dynamics models. Examples of the building-blocks will be discussed, and their use will be illustrated with model fragments. The talk will also describe the facilities the software provides for input and output, and the user interface that can be incorporated into a 'management flight simulator'. The speaker will also show a few of the things that happen 'behind the scenes' as a model is built. The talk will be illustrated with overhead slides, but a laptop will be available for a limited live demonstration.
Biography: Maurice Elliott was born and educated in England, where he obtained a Bachelor's degree in mathematics followed by a Master's degree in Operational Research from Birmingham University. In 1970, he emigrated to Toronto where he spent ten years working on planning systems at the worldwide headquarters of Massey Ferguson. In 1980 he moved to Calgary to join Dome Petroleum, where he and his group built many systems for financial planning and optimization, with benefits around $10 million in some years. After the merger with Amoco Canada, it became evident that the grass was greener outside, and in 1993 he left to operate his own consulting company - Decision Insight Systems Inc. He has consulted for a variety of companies since then, mostly in the oil patch. He is currently building systems incorporating mathematical / optimization models for Husky Oil.
Date: Friday, October 16, 1998
Speaker: Tom Morrison, Morrison Scientific
Title: The Prediction of Corrosion Growth in a Gas Pipeline.
Abstract: In May 1997 Tom Morrison gave a review of the work Morrison Scientific was hoping to accomplish for NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. During the past two years the corrosion growth and risk assessment methodology has become a mature product, and has created much industry interest because of its unique nature. The talk will discuss the mature product, leading from the analysis of the corrosion data from intelligent in-line inspection tools, or pigs, some of the problems that had to be overcome because of making predictions in a high variance environment due to resolution problems with the tools, use of the methodology as a proactive tool for removing pipe by determining those corrosion features of high risk without performing another expensive in-line inspection, and plans for the future.
Biography: Morrison Scientific has also changed in the past two years, from a company of less than 10 people to one of about 16 people. Tom Morrison and his partner Guy Desjardins, have led the development of the corrosion growth methodology for over half a decade. Tom has a master's degree in statistics and operations research from the University of Calgary in 1993. The thesis was geared towards answering some questions about what to do with the corrosion growth analysis data once it was obtained. Morrison Scientific supports an annual scholarship to the statistics department at the University of Calgary.
Date: Thursday, November 19, 1998
Speaker: Leonard Coad, Canadian Energy Research Institute
Title: The Near Term Outlook for Natural Gas
Abstract: Western Canada's natural gas industry is in a transition from a significant supply surplus to a situation where the market will be balanced, or perhaps short of supply. The Canadian Energy Research Institute has recently completed two studies in this area. The first is a long-term, general equilibrium analysis of the North American industry. The second is an annual survey of natural gas producer intentions with regard to expenditures, and resulting productive capability. This presentation will draw upon those two analyses to provide a view of the near term dynamic of the industry. The current situation in the gas industry will also be used to illustrate some of the basic principles of network analysis.
Biography: Leonard Coad is Vice President, North American Natural Gas and Electricity, with the Canadian Energy Research Institute. He joined CERI in February, 1998 with responsibility for the Institute's research program in natural gas and electric power within North America. Mr. Coad has been an energy economics specialist since he first joined CERI in 1983 as a natural gas analyst. He has also worked as natural gas policy advisor to the government of British Columbia, and in various roles with Amoco Canada and TransCanada PipeLines. Mr. Coad has performed numerous market analyses in the natural gas, electric power, and petroleum products industries. He has also authored or co-authored several CERI studies, as well as journal articles in the fields of energy economics and operations research.
Mr. Coad was granted an honors degree in Economics (1979) from the University of Alberta, and a Master of Arts degree (1982) from the University of Calgary.
Date: Friday, January 22, 1999
Speaker: Jeff Sutherland, BJ Pipeline Inspection Services, Calgary Alberta
Title: Development and Operational Use of Artificial Intelligence in In-line Magnetic Flux Leakage Pipeline Inspection
Abstract: We outline the development, implementation and operational use of a successful artificial intelligence system for the analysis of Magnetic Flux Leakage Pipeline In-Line Inspection Data. We present the evaluation of different architectures, use of training and evaluation techniques for neural networks. We developed a corrosion defect sizing system based upon experimental and field data sets, which includes the novel use of the circumferential component of the magnetic flux vector. Implications of choices for architecture, input and output parameters and normalisation (scaling) factors upon results and performance are presented. Transfer into day to day operations and performance will be discussed.
Biography: Jeffrey E. Sutherland is a Senior NDT Research Engineer with BJ Pipeline Inspection Services. He holds an M.Sc. degree from Queen's University, and has been working on NDT inspection techniques for pipeline inspection for over 5 years. He has co-authored several papers on these techniques and related data analysis and interpretation. He is a professional engineer in the province of Alberta (Canada) and is a member of IEEE and ASN
Date: Thursday, February 18, 1999
Speaker: Thorn Walden, Alberta Energy & Utilities Board
Title: Economic Lot Size in a Multi-Product Steel Pipe Mill
Abstract: I'll be discussing a production scheduling study for a small-inch, multi-product steel pipe mill, in which I used a cyclical enhancement of the simple economic-lot-size inventory control model. Time permitting, I'll also describe my solution to a classical problem posed by steady-state inventory control models: how to get from zero inventory (e.g. at plant start-up) in an optimal fashion to the inventory initially required by the steady-state model.
Biography: I was born and raised in British Columbia, where I obtained a B.Sc. an M.B.A. from U.B.C. and later took graduate OR courses at U.C.L.A., Case Western Reserve and McGill. I am a Senior Economist in the Economics & Policy Development Group of the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, where my chief responsibility is the care and feeding of a macroeconomic model of Alberta. I also assess the greenhouse gas emissions associated with production and consumption of energy and handle economic aspects of applications to build pipelines or mine coal. Recently, I have also dealt with the social impact of oil sands projects. Previously, I had a similar role in applications to build petrochemical plants, electric power plants and transmission lines; and to export natural gas. Earlier, I worked in Alberta, Quebec and East Africa as an economist and management consultant. Other projects I have worked on with an operational research flavour include fertilizer storage and distribution, oil prorationing as a quadratic programming problem, and project evaluation in utility demand-side management as an integer programming problem.
Date: Friday, March 19, 1999
Speaker: Richard C. Hudson CMC
Title: Focus on Profit
Abstract: Many companies use cumulative financial and operating data and ratios based on them to examine their profitability. These "topline" data underpin critical management decisions and direction but are often misleading. This discussion will explore segmentation approaches and more detailed analysis to reveal the opportunity for better understanding of the opportunities and challenges facing the company.
Biography: Richard Hudson is the Senior Partner of Manecon Partnership Corporation, Management and Economic Consultants. He is a Certified Management Consultant and has more than 25 years professional experience as a management consultant. Richard's work focuses on strategic business analysis and planning, growth management, profit planning, and market research. His clients are large and small scale public and private sector clients in most sectors of the economy whose interests are found in most continents.
Date: Friday, April 16, 1999
Speaker: Nigel Waters, Department of Geography, University of Calgary
Title: GIS and Operations Research: A Marriage Made in Heaven --- or Hell?
Abstract: The talk will focus on the historic development of the links between GIS and Operations Research. Current OR capabilities of state-of-the-art, transportation-oriented GIS (GIS-T) will be discussed along with the benefits and challenges of integrating the two technologies. The talk will conclude with a discussion of a wish list for the OR capabilities of spatial decision support systems (SDSS) of the future.
Biography: Nigel Waters is a Professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Calgary where he has been teaching and researching since 1975. He is Director of the Transportation Centre of the Van Horne Institute for International Transportation and Regulatory Affairs. Currently he is involved in planning the development of the Department of Geography's new one year, course-based Masters Degree in Geographic Information Systems which will begin accepting students in September, 1999. He recently contributed a chapter on Transportation GIS to the two volume text, "Geographical Information Systems: Principles, Techniques, Applications and Management" published in early 1999 by John Wiley and Sons and the chapter on GIS to the Encyclopedia of Library and Information Sciences in 1998.
Date: Thursday, September 30, 1999
Speaker: Dr. Ernest Enns, Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary
Title: The Operations Research Umbrella
Abstract: A truly fun time of thinking is promised, as Dr. Enns will show us how many problems are within the operations research umbrella.
Biography: Dr. Ernie Enns is the head of the Mathematics and Statistics Department of the University of Calgary, where he has been for approximately the past 20 years. Specializing in optimization, nearest neighbour, stereology and game theory problems, Dr. Enns is always an entertaining speaker.
Date: Thursday, October 28, 1999
Speaker: Mr. Gordon Salahor
Title: Implications of Commodity Price Risk and Operating Leverage on Petroleum Project Evaluations
Abstract: One of the key issues for a capital-intensive commodity business such as petroleum development is the use of discounted cash flow for evaluation of investments...traditional present value or discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis methods used in petroleum economics often represent an arbitrary or inappropriate treatment of the risk in individual project cash flows. Consequently, managers in the petroleum industry often encounter adverse economic and operational issues associated with their assets and businesses, that on the surface, seem to be due to unfortunate choices made long ago regarding the structure of an investment, project or commercial agreement. In-depth analysis of decision making tools and processes reveals that there are some systematic, fundamental problems with our economic analysis that in many cases lead the best of managers to make these choices. Such choices result from failing to optimise over the dimension of risk, along with those of time and the physical inputs and outputs. Although directed at the petroleum industry, the "Modern Asset Pricing ('MAP')" valuation methodologies illustrated by Mr. Salahor are applicable to any situation where outcomes are dependent on random determination of future states, such as the price of the produced commodity.
Biography: Gord Salahor holds a B.Sc. in chemical engineering and an MBA from the U. of Alberta. He has worked in operations support and process design engineering, corporate planning and financial systems consulting, and is currently with Solex Energy Inc. in Calgary. He has also published material on MAP in The Energy Journal.
Speaker: Dan Ruiu, Powerpool of Alberta
Topic: Electric Power Systems - Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Abstract
The presentation will include a brief description of the ANN concepts, STLF uses and requirements, utilization of ANN for STLF and comparison of STLF results obtained using "classic" and ANN methods
BIOGRAPHY Mr. Ruiu is an electrical engineer with post-graduate degrees in power engineering and international relations (economics). He has worked in the electric power field with private and public utilities, the World Bank, consulting organizations and equipment manufacturers for over 40 years. In addition to his work assignments in Canada and the USA, he has worked on power projects in several countries in Europe, Africa and Asia. He has written over 30 technical papers and articles published in different technical magazines and proceedings in Canada and USA. Mr. Ruiu is a professional engineer registered in Ontario and a senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE).