Canadian
Operational Research Society
Calgary
Section
http://www.corscalgary.org/
PROFESSIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SEMINAR
Room
217
TransCanada
Tower
450
- 1 Street SW
(See
attached map)
Dr. Kenneth Logan
Senior
Supply Specialist, TransCanada Pipelines Limited
TOPIC
Developing a Gas Supply
Model for Forecasting Future Canadian Gas Supply
Abstract:
The
purpose of this seminar is to describe a mathematical and computer model that
has been developed by TransCanada for TransCanada Pipelines (TCPL) and for the
Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) for future Canadian natural gas
resource assessment work. It was developed in the contexts of developing a gas
supply model for forecasting future Canadian gas supply for TCPL and of
improving the CGPC’s assessment methodologies and software.
The
model integrates two discovery process models used by the CGPC and solves the
economic truncation problem for semi-mature to mature plays. It is based on
applying techniques developed by G. M. Kaufman and J. D. Fuller and colleagues
in new ways, which extends the work of these authors.
This
model has a number of important advantages including: fast computational speed;
integration of parametric and nonparametric statistical approaches; integration
of the Kaufman model, the Arps-Roberts Model, and others; overcoming a PETRIMES
limitation of a maximum of 1000 samples; providing a finding rate forecast for
economic analysis; and providing a fresh look at solving the economic
truncation problem.
The
details of the new Modified Arps-Roberts Model (now known as the Truncated
Discovery Process Model or TDPM for short) are discussed.
About the Speaker:
Dr. Kenneth Logan
obtained his Ph.D. degree in probability from Cornell University, followed by 8
years at Shell Canada as a senior geophysicist and engineering software team
leader, then 7 years at BP Canada Ltd. (now Talisman) as an Oil Sands reservoir
engineer and engineering software team leader. Ken has been at NOVA/TCPL for 15
and a half years in the area of forecasting of Canadian gas supply. Ken, with
the help of Bob Meneley, developed the statistical software model, TDPM, for
TransCanada and the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC). TDPM was used in
CGPC's 2005 Canadian resource assessment.