Canadian Operational Research Society

Calgary Section

http://www.corscalgary.org/

PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEMINAR

When: Noon to 1:30 PM, Friday, January 20, 2006

Room 217

TransCanada Tower

450 - 1 Street SW

(See attached map)

SPEAKER

Andrew McGoey-Smith, PhD

Senior Modelling Specialist

Engineering Division

Golder Associates Ltd.

Calgary, Alberta

TOPIC

Risk and decision analysis for environmental projects

Abstract

The rapid development of the resource sector in Canada and strong economic performance in general has provided a growing market for environmental consulting companies like Golder. Most of this business at Golder Calgary has involved performance of scientific and engineering field studies to support environmental impact assessments for the oil sands sector. A significant component of Golder’s business also involves interpreting field data and assisting clients in making complex decisions often under considerable uncertainty.

In this talk we describe how two classical methods of operations research: Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Analysis have been used as part of a series of probabilistic risk assessments for land development over an undermined area in Canmore. In particular, we describe how a mathematical model was developed to predict probability distributions for ground subsidence over a 50-year period from the date of construction for several $30M+ subdivisions. We also describe the development of a consequence model for quantifying potential building damage, which can be used for insurance purposes. Finally, we describe how the simulation was implemented using GoldSim and show how multi-criterion decision analysis approach is sometimes required to choose the optimum strategy for risk mitigation.

About the Speaker

ANDREW MCGOEY-SMITH has been with Golder Associates in Calgary for over 2 years. He was educated in England at the University of Manchester where he received his PhD in Theoretical Chemistry. After working in academic research as a postdoc in physics at the Universities of Waterloo and Maryland, Andrew worked in hi-tech industry for 12 years first in Ottawa and then Calgary. During his time in industry, Andrew performed R&D in remote sensing technologies including digital signal processing algorithm development. Later, he worked in system engineering on a large voice/data communications program where he applied statistical design of experiments to voice quality testing and developed both Monte Carlo and Discrete-Event simulations for predicting system performance. After leaving hi-tech, Andrew worked for the Alberta public service for two years before joining Golder. At Golder Andrew provides risk and decision consulting services to environmental projects in the land development, transportation, government and oil and gas sectors.